현재 예상하고 있는 경로,태풍 강도는 전부 신뢰성낮음 상태

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: 

 TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW 

 TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW 

 INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW 

 INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW

TS SHANSHAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON TO A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STEERING RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING FLOW AND TIMING OF THE TURN ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE INITIAL TRACK MOTION. AFTER TAU 72, A NORTHWESTWARD DEFLECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE STR BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY LARGE, BOTH IN THE INITIAL AND EXTENDED PERIODS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AS OUTFLOW GRADUALLY IMPROVES. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAU 36 TO 48 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS SLOWED AS A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL TO THE WEST INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 72, THE GFS CALLS FOR TUTT CELL TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION, RESULTING IN RENEWED INTENSIFICATION, WHEREAS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A NEGATIVE SUPERPOSITION OF THE TUTT FEATURE RESULTING IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LATER TAUS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES DESCRIBED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

1.

24시간 이내에 북쪽으로 전향할 가능성이 크다 하지만 전향에 대해서도 아직 불확실성이 있음 그렇기때문에 초기경로의 신뢰도는 낮음

2.

72시간 이후에는 GFS 모델이 TUTT 셀(열대상층기압골)이 더 유리한 위치로 이동함에 따라 재강화될 것으로 보고 있고

ECMWF 모델은 TUTT의 영향을 받아 약화될 것으로 보고 있다.